Historical Foundation
The U.S. immigrant labor landscape is a constantly evolving entity, influenced by a range of policy decisions, global events, and economic factors. Its intricate relationship with broader domestic and international dynamics makes it a critical area of focus for a range of stakeholders.
The Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) forms the bedrock of U.S. immigration policy, defining categories like refugees and asylees based on persecution fears. These groups, alongside other visa holders, contribute to the U.S. labor market. The system has been subject to fluctuations due to political changes, most noticeably during the Trump administration, which tightened visa issuances and refugee admissions.
Disruptions and Recovery
The COVID-19 pandemic added another layer of complexity. Visas dropped sharply during the pandemic but have nearly doubled since. This shows that the U.S. is still attractive for immigrants looking for work. However, not every type of visa has bounced back. For example, fewer tourist and business visas are being given out than before the pandemic, affecting industries that depend on these visitors.
Labor Categories
| H1B Visas | Highly skilled professionals in fields like IT, engineering, and healthcare. These visas are in high demand and reach their limit quickly. |
| H2A Visas | Primarily used for temporary or seasonal agricultural work. These visas were not restricted during the pandemic, highlighting their essential status. |
| B1/B2 Visas | Though not strictly labor visas, these affect sectors reliant on tourism and international business. |
| F1 Visas | Allow international students to study in the U.S. and sometimes work part-time. |
| J1 Visas | Used for cultural and educational exchange programs, including work-study. |
| H Visas | Includes other types of work-related visas not falling under the specialized labor category. |
Geographical Shifts
Country-based contributions to the U.S. immigrant labor pool have seen shifts, too. While Mexico's share of both immigrant and nonimmigrant visas has increased post-pandemic, China's has decreased. Regional trends also indicate that visas issued to Asian nationals have decreased, while those to North American nationals have increased.
Backlogs and Policy Effects
The system isn't without its challenges. A considerable backlog exists in asylum hearings, affecting the labor force's makeup in sectors that often employ asylees. Policy shifts from the Trump to the Biden administration have influenced both the volume and the source countries of incoming immigrant labor, which could have longer-term implications on various U.S. industries.
A Data Driven Exploration of U.S. Immigration
Let's inform, discuss, and act to create a future where immigration is a lever for economic prosperity for all.
Explore our data-driven tool to learn more.
Methodology
An Overview of Our Approach
Our methodology leverages the OON framework to shape U.S. immigration policy, with a particular emphasis on identifying high-demand roles suitable for immigrant workers. The OON considers four key variables:
Occupational Complementarity:
This metric evaluates how
seamlessly an occupation integrates into the existing U.S. labor
market. It identifies roles that are not just crucial to the economy
but also elevate productivity across sectors. An occupation's
complementarity index, which ranges from zero to one, is calculated by
averaging its pairwise complementarity values with other roles.
Occupations are considered complementary if their industry employment
shares co-vary.
Occupational Opportunity Network:
The network diagram identifies
strategic occupations that will be in high demand for the next decade;
are historically immigrant intensive; and have a high degree of
complementarity with other occupations. In the network each node
represents an occupation. The distance between the nodes reflects the
pairwise complementarity detailed above.
Projected Visa Demand:
This metric which can help prioritize occupations likely to require workers
with visas is given by the projected employment change in the occupation
plus projected labor market exits from the occupation (an estimate of the
number of workers expected to exit the labor force due to retirement or
other factors) all multiplied by the share of people currently working
in the occupation on a visa.
Immigrant Intensity:
This metric gauges the presence of foreign-born workers in various occupations,
using a 17% national average for comparison. It helps us identify sectors
already benefiting from or potentially conducive to immigrant labor.
Training Required:
This variable sorts occupations based on their training prerequisites as
classified by O*NET Job Zones. This enables us to pinpoint roles that are
both vital to the U.S. economy and accessible to immigrants, given their
educational and vocational backgrounds.
Our methodology integrates these key variables for a holistic understanding of the U.S. labor market. This unified approach helps us grasp how immigrant labor enhances current workforce structures and pinpoints areas where tailored immigration policies can address labor shortages effectively.
For further insights, consult our Roadmap to Immigration Reform report.
Data Sources
Our analysis relies on robust and credible data sources to ensure the integrity and reliability of our findings. The following are the primary data repositories tapped for this research:
| Projections Central: | For projections on metropolitan and state-level occupational growth. |
| IPUMS ACS: | To explore immigrant shares in various occupations. |
| Lightcast: | For data on occupational complementarity and staffing patterns. |
| U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: | For comprehensive labor market data. |
| U.S Census Bureau: | For population demographics and additional variables. |
Relevant Disclaimers
While our data sources are reputable, it's important to note the following:
Data accuracy is subject to the methodologies employed by each source. The currency of the data is as current as the last update from each respective data provider.